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Ed's latest podcasts....Click to listen
Episode for 5/11/2008
- As the race for the Democratic nomination winds down, Edward Trimnell turns his attention to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.
- In this podcast, Edward Trimnell takes aim at John McCain’s positions on Iraq, the economy, the Second Amendment, and social issues
Episode for 5/04/2008
Obama vs. Clinton on the Middle East
- Hillary Clinton favors a “peace through strength” policy for dealing with rogue nations like Iran. Barack Obama recently criticized Mrs. Clinton for “sounding too much like George Bush” on foreign policy.
- What do Clinton and Obama’s positions about Iran suggest about their qualifications to be the next President of the United States?
- This podcast also covers some history of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
May 12, 2008
Google, Amazon and resource allocation
Category: Business
I have spent all of my corporate time in no-nonsense manufacturing industries like automobiles and machine tools, so life at Google would probably seem extraterrestrial to me.
Google employees get many perks (like free massages and free beverages). They also have unprecedented flexibility built into their work routine. Every Google employee can spend 20% of his or her work week on special, independently directed projects. This is unheard of in a traditional manufacturing operation, where everyone’s routine is rigidly linked to objectives determined by upper management.
But these are not the only areas where Google differs from its industrial cousins. Most companies have a fairly narrowly defined notion of what they can do well---and what they can’t. Conventional economic wisdom holds that companies succeed by specialization---not by dabbling.
As CNN reports, this bit of traditional wisdom has yet to take hold at Google:
Says one ardent, if critical, Google fan: "They can't do everything, but they still think they can."
The dabbling often results in duplicated efforts - or products stuck in also-ran status. Google Page Creator, an early-stage product that nevertheless was publicly released in 2006, does about the same thing as Google Sites, a newer offering. "Even on Web search, there were multiple teams working on similar projects," says Ooyala's Knapp. Google Checkout is a payment system in which Google has invested heavily, yet it remains far behind eBay's (EBAY, Fortune 500) PayPal unit in market share. It doesn't help matters that eBay is a major Google customer, but that's another story.
Even high-profile business deals don't always reflect a clear logic. When the company outbid Microsoft to supply search ads to News Corp.'s MySpace social network, for instance, Google was aware that the deal wouldn't make it a lot of money right away. Almost two years later Google still isn't making much, if any, money on MySpace - or any other social network, for that matter.
Google also has yet to see the kinds of financial returns it had hoped for from its prodigious acquisitions. In its first significant purchase Google paid $98 million in early 2006 for dMarc, a startup that manages ad spots for radio. It was to be the foundation for Google's move into selling forms of advertising other than plain text ads. But dMarc, now Google Audio Ads, hasn't amounted to much. Indeed, it's one of seven products, as Google dryly notes in its securities filings, that have not produced any material revenue. ---CNN
You get the idea. And Google isn’t alone among web companies in succumbing to “diversification fever.” Consider Amazon.com. Amazon started out as an online bookstore. Today it sells health food, pet care supplies, bicycles and power tools---just to name a few. Amazon is also trying to compete with Ebay as a general online sales and auction site.
Everyone who has ever started a web business----even a simple website, for that matter---- knows the temptation of diversification. An internet business is so deceptively scalable. It is irresistibly simple to put another iron in the fire, to try one’s hand in a new area. At the most basic level, all you have to do is put up a new page that is dedicated to your latest diversification.
But as competition on the Internet increases, companies like Amazon and Google will have to refocus themselves on their core businesses. Too much diversification only confuses consumers. Consumers like companies that are tightly focused.
For example, when I want to purchase a book, I almost always go to Amazon. But when I want to buy a lawnmower, my natural inclination is to head for Sears, Target, or Walmart. I know that I can buy a Lawn-Boy Insight Series 21-Inch 6.5 HP Gas Powered Self-Propelled Lawn Mower with Sens-a-Speed on Amazon; but I still prefer bricks-and-mortar retailers for this kind of purchase.
Likewise, I love Google’s search engine; but I have yet to try G-mail or Google Apps. My email accounts at Yahoo and Hotmail work just fine, thank you. And while yes, I understand that Microsoft is a pernicious, predatory monopoly and all that, I am perfectly happy working with MS Word and MS Excel. I don’t need Google to reengineer basic desktop applications that I already have.
As the article hyperlinked above indicates, Internet companies like Google and Amazon have gotten mixed results with their sundry diversifications. Internet companies will probably always have a bit more latitude to diversify than their conventional counterparts do---but future business conditions will remind them that they, too, face limits.
May 11, 2008
Category: U.S. domestic politics
Why John McCain might scare me even more
I have been rather critical of Barack Obama recently---mainly for his Pollyanna belief that Iran could be dissuaded from sponsoring terrorism if we just held a big international conference with the Middle East’s Muslim nations. Yeah, that would be work. The Iranian government’s anti-Western, pro-terror bias has a very long history. (In fact, the government of the Islamic Republic depends on the mythology of outside enemies in order to justify its own system of internal repression.) Barack isn’t going to change Iran simply by getting together with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and singing Kumbaya. We need to offer Iran carrots---but we need to hold up the stick, too.
So now that Barack is probably going to get the Democratic nomination, I decided to have a close look at the Republican alternative: John McCain.
There all sorts of things that I don’t like about John McCain. To begin with, he is already kowtowing to the Religious Right. His campaign website includes an entire page of proclamations about conservative social issues like “protecting marriage” (this from a guy who dumped his first wife for an heiress trophy babe who was twenty years his junior.)
John McCain is also in the back pocket of the gun fanatics. Now, I grew up in semi-rural Ohio, and I know that a gun is a practical necessity in many parts of the country. I never had any interest in shooting animals, but I used to enjoy skeet shooting. And I have no desire to take away “traditional” firearms like bolt-action rifles and shotguns. Nor do most advocates of reasonable gun control laws.
But Chinese-made AK-47s? Here is what John McCain has to say on the subject:
“John McCain opposes bans on the importation of certain types of ammunition magazines and has voted against such limitations.”
John McCain opposes restrictions on so-called "assault rifles" and voted consistently against such bans. Most recently he opposed an amendment to extend a ban on 19 specific firearms, and others with similar characteristics.
Source: JohnMcCain.com
So after careful examination of Barack Obama and this piece of work that the Republicans have chosen as their standard bearer, I have one question: What the #@! were the primary voters in both parties thinking? Were they all smoking crack or watching reruns of American Idol while they were supposed to be making an intelligent decision about their parties’ candidates?
We had a number of viable choices from both parties---Rudy Guiliani, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton. But the primary voters seem to have ordained that we will choose from the worst of both sides in November.
May 10, 2008
Category: Education
Teacher salaries and time off
In addition to the relatively low pay, heavy workload and bureaucratic pressures that have become synonymous with the profession, many more teachers throughout the country face layoffs because of budget issues, according to the National Education Association, the union that represents 3.2 million education professionals nationwide. ---CNN.com
According to his article, most teachers still have annual paychecks somewhere in the $45,000 range ($43,580 to $48,690 in May 2006). This is considerably less than what educated professionals earn in the private sector.
But this comparison doesn’t tell the whole story. Most teachers work nine months per year, while accountants, attorneys, and engineers work a full twelve. To “annualize” teacher pay on an apples-to-apples basis with other professions, you have to take this factor into consideration.
The simplest way to do this is to calculate teacher pay as a monthly wage, based on nine months per year. Forty-five thousand dollars divided by nine is $5,000. Multiply this by 12 and you get $60,000.
As an annual salary, sixty-thousand dollars isn’t all the money in the world, but it isn’t starvation wages either---especially for a single person or a second income for a dual income household.
Of course, the sixty thousand dollars cited above is theoretical. In reality, teachers effectively trade summers off for additional pay. Some teachers are no doubt happy to make this trade-off. (I know at least a few teachers who will admit to this as a factor in their choice of profession.) Others would probably be willing to work twelve months a year if they could make $60,000 instead of $45,000.
I don’t have any hard statistics to back this next point up; but anecdotal evidence suggests that teachers also have shorter than average workdays even during the school year. School typically lets out between 2:30 and 4:00 p.m. (depending on the school district and the particular grade.) Few corporate workers punch out before 5:00 p.m., and most work until 5:30 or 6:00.
True, teachers have “homework”: grading papers and preparing lesson plans. But many corporate employees also have to take work home---after leaving the office at 5:00 or 6:00.
It is fair to conclude that, on average, teachers have more discretionary time than private sector employees; and this time can be used for income-producing activity. Many teachers do in fact have sidelines that bring in extra income. Several of my high school teachers sold insurance in their spare time---and had aggregate incomes that exceeded those of the average corporate cubicle dweller. I know teachers who leverage their extra time off to moonlight as tutors, copywriters, and real estate agents.
Of course, most teachers are probably not interested in juggling multiple careers and sidelines. Like corporate employees, they would prefer to earn all (or most) of their income from a single, dependable source. And they don’t want a ceiling of $60,000. If corporate types aspire to six-figure salaries, why shouldn’t teachers?
So how do we convince corporate workers who work twelve months a year to pay higher taxes so that teachers’ salaries can be raised to parity with their own incomes? We might start by putting everyone on a similar schedule. Teacher pay would almost certainly increase if schools operated on schedules that approximated those of the private sector (i.e. twelve months a year).
In the competitive, globalized world in which we now live, our kids could benefit from three extra months of schooling each year. And gone would be the excuse that teachers should make a pittance because they enjoy the fringe benefit of summers off.
May 04, 2008
Category: Asia / Europe
Youthful nationalism in China and Russia
I was browsing through some of my old eighties rock favorites on YouTube when I happened across Sting’s 1985 video Russians.
This song was written in the context of the pre-Gorbachev Cold War arms race, and I didn’t expect that the predominantly young YouTube crowd would have much to say about the political situation of those times.
I was wrong. The message board for Russians was filled with plenty of comments---but I was again surprised at the nature of the comments and the people who wrote them.
For example, here is a comment thread from a 22-year-old Russian man from St. Petersburg. (There are some spelling and grammar mistakes but it is mostly readable.)
We really wanted to be friends with USA in 90s. But they began to destroy our country. Our new generation hate USA now more than USSR.
People, look to the world today.
Today USA is a main terrorist of our planet.
They kill people only for money, they destroy people's lifes and countries.
90% of the world hate USA!
It is very funny to hear from USA words about democracy, freedome and human rights, whan USA breake the international law and bomb countries, like Serbia, Irak...
The humanity is threatened by mortal danger from USA. Look at their politics.
USA provoke people and countries to the war. They provoke Russia to it too by the distribution of ballistic rockets in Poland and Czechia. And everybody knows, that only Russia can erase in a powder USA. Today russian army has a modern arsenal and russian atomic weapon is cleared for action.
What is it? It is not a cold war, it is a preparation for real war.
This is only a sample. Browsing around YouTube, I found a lot more ultranationalist and anti-Western comments from young Russians. Many were angry not only about the collapse of the Soviet Union after the Cold War, but also the U.S. bombing of Serbia about ten years ago.
Twenty-something Chinese are also politically active on YouTube. I found numerous profiles that talked about the greatness of China. Many expressed anger over Western “meddling” in Tibet.
Twenty years ago, as Communism was waning, there was an expectation that the subsequent generations of Russians and Chinese would become more “Westernized.” It seems that in both countries, a dedication to Marxism has been replaced by a dedication to the fatherland.
My random perusal of YouTube comment threads and profiles does not, of course, represent a scientific opinion survey of the under-30 generation in either Russia or China. Nevertheless, these opinions indicate that nationalism and anti-Western paranoia continue to exist in both countries.
May 03, 2008
What I’m Reading:
The Age of Turbulence
by Alan Greenspan
I have just finished reading Alan Greenspan’s latest book, The Age of Turbulence. This book is a mixture of autobiography, economic history, and future prognostication. (In the final chapter of the book, the author forecasts what the world economy will look like in 2030---a daunting task even for the likes of Alan Greenspan.)
Alan Greenspan traces the course of his life from his teenage years (he originally wanted to be a jazz musician) to his chairmanship of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. He also covers his years as a private consultant.
What will be of more interest to most readers is Greenspan’s extensive experience with so many presidents. (According to the ex-Fed chairman, our two most cerebral presidents of recent decades were Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.)
Greenspan is a libertarian Republican, but he has plenty of criticism for current GOP economic policies. Like many Americans, Greenspan laments the swelling of the deficit under George W. Bush.
A few other points and observations from the book:
Greenspan is an advocate of free trade orthodoxy. Like many in this camp, he glosses over the fact that free trade in the context of China means that American workers compete with Communist prison labor, and state-subsidized enterprises that are not subject to any environmental or workplace safety regulations. His assessment of free trade is textbook Adam Smith/Ricardo theory. (Free trade is beneficial, of course---provided that there is a truly level playing field, which is not the case at present.)
Greenspan says we should pay math teachers more. Since mathematics teachers have more opportunities in the private sector (compared to English literature teacher, for example), schools should pay them higher salaries. This makes sense to me.
Monetary authorities should hold down inflation despite political pressures. Once again, I agree with Greenspan. During economic slowdowns, the Fed is often pressured to pump more cash into the economy through monetary policy. The overuse of this technique is a major factor behind the hyperinflation of economies in the developing world. To support this argument, Greenspan discusses the history of Paul Volcker’s inflationary restraints during the Reagan years. Volcker tamed inflation---but it cost us a recession in the early 1980s.
If you have an interest in economics, U.S. history, or Alan Greenspan, then you will enjoy this book. Although I don’t agree with every one of his positions, Alan Greenspan is a brilliant man. Almost anyone can learn something from The Age of Turbulence.
May 03, 2008
Silly celebrity sex news
If you are a regular visitor here, then you already know that I don’t care much for celebrity news. (My fellow Americans expend way, way too much time and brain wattage on flaky movie stars, rap singers who can’t sing, and professional athletes.)
This week there were two trivial celebrity stories that the media just couldn’t leave alone: Barbara Walters’ confession of an affair with a former congressman, and the now infamous Miley Cyrus photo shoot in Vanity Fair.
Let’s begin with Walters. Ms. Walters is 78 years old and her affair with former U.S Sen. Edward Brooke took place in the 1970s. (The former senator is now 88.)
Why is this news? Why should I care? Moreover: why did Ms. Walters feel compelled to unburden herself by revealing this tidbit now---thirty years after the fact? This seems to be nothing more than a ploy to boost sales of the journalist’s recently published autobiography.
Sex always sells, it seems, even when octogenarians and septuagenarians are involved.
And now the issue that really affects national security and the well-being of every American: the appearance of Miley Cyrus’s back and midriff in Vanity Fair.
The photos were all over the internet and the news, so yes, I saw them. And if I had a fifteen-year-old daughter, I would probably make her wear loose-fitting sweaters and baggy bloomers. The photos were a bit inappropriate for a 15-year-old, and probably a bad marketing move for Cyrus, considering that her target audience is preteen girls (and their parents).
But at the end of the day, this situation is fairly innocuous. We aren’t talking about child porn here. You can see a lot more teenage skin at any mall in America, the way kids are dressing these days.
Rather than endlessly kvetching about the “exploitation” of a 15-year-old millionaire who is the scion of a millionaire, we should direct our angst toward the welfare of those non-famous minors who are truly abused.
Despite the trauma of this recent episode (and our failure to let it fade into the irrelevance it warrants), Miley Cyrus will be alright in the end. There are many youngsters who don’t have their own TV shows who are in worse situations. I would rather focus our vicarious parental instincts on them.
April 29, 2008
Mandarin Chinese an "integral piece of a good American education"
Category: Foreign languages
No that’s not my pronouncement. This is the verdict of educators in Ohio. And they aren’t alone. Mandarin has been getting attention throughout the United States and the UK in recent years. Mandarin immersion programs are the latest thing, like this program in central Ohio:
"Everything they will do will be in Chinese," Raymond said.
In addition, those in the program will correspond with Metro High School students in China.
"We will be able to have all the kids who are in China talking to the kids being immersed in Chinese," Raymond said.
(Read the complete article here.)
If you read my editorials and listen to my podcasts, then you know that I am often critical of the current government in Beijing. China’s human rights record still gives us cause for concern; and China’s military ambitions are a potential danger for us in the coming decades.
But this doesn’t erase the fact that China is a major political and economic world power, and we ignore it at our peril. In order to be equipped to deal with China, we have to learn more about it. An integral aspect of our “China education” is proficiency in the Chinese language.
Whether you view China as a friend or a competitor (or both), China is going to shape the world you live in during the rest of this century. We Americans need to learn about China----and to do this effectively, we will need Chinese language skills. There is no way around it.
April 28, 2008
Paul Broun: another aspiring national nanny
Category: Social issues
My grandfather served in the U.S. Navy during World War II. At the time, he was a single man in his early twenties. As you might have noticed, that demographic typically spends a lot of time thinking about the opposite sex. And military life (especially in a combat zone) offers few outlets for the randy thoughts of young unattached males.
I know for a fact that he and his shipmates had access to “girlie magazines” and similar items. (It is amazing how easy it is to capture the attention of men with pictures of scantily clad women.) Somewhere in his travels, he even acquired one of those old novelty pens that bears a picture of a woman in a bathing suit. When you tilt the pen upside down, the woman’s bathing suit disappears. (My grandfather was a packrat---he showed the pen to me about twenty years ago.)
Why I am telling you this? Here is why:
Republican Congressman Paul Broun, the representative from Georgia's 10th District, wants to stop the sale of Playboy and Penthouse at military bases around the world, invoking an argument that at the very least is scientifically questionable: that consuming even soft pornography makes men more prone to committing sex crimes. ---Newsweek
Just for the record---I haven’t bought a copy of Playboy since Ronald Reagan was President. But I probably saw one at some point during my teenage years. (I was reading it for the articles and short fiction, mind you.) Lo and behold, this experience never prompted me to commit a sex crime---unless you know something I don’t.
And as far as I know, my grandfather was never inspired in the sex crime direction because he had access to these magazines while in the navy. After fighting the Nazis in Europe, my grandfather returned home, married, raised a family, and retired from Ford Motor Company. He died in 1998. (I still miss him as if he died last week, rather than ten years ago.)
Geopolitics and wars change, but human nature doesn’t. Today we have soldiers engaged in two wars on foreign soil. Many of them are young men in the 18-24 year-old age range. If these guys want to read a copy of Playboy in between firefights with the Taliban and al-Qaeda, I say: give it to them. While you’re at it, let them have all the Playboy special editions, too, like Women of the Big Ten, Women of the East Coast, Dental Hygienists in Leather and Bondage Gear, etc., etc.
It is disgraceful that once again a politician from the Religious Right is attempting to impose his personal interpretation of Scripture on the rest of us. It is bad enough when these advocates of the theocratic nanny state engage in such tomfoolery at home, but let them leave our men and women in uniform alone.
Bottom line: Congressman Broun’s proposal is just plain un-American, and insulting to our service personnel.
April 27, 2008
Why the Tibet issue won't go away
Category: Asia
Yesterday the Olympic torch made its way to South Korea, where there were more protests against China’s occupation of Tibet. This time there was a new twist: Some 30,000 Chinese students study at South Korean universities; and some of these scholars took a break from their economics and mechanical engineering texts to scuffle with the anti-China demonstrators.
My opposition to the ham-fisted tactics of the Beijing government is well documented throughout this site. For the sake of fairness, though, I should note that there is in fact a historical basis for asserting that Tibet is a part of China. China did control Tibet at various periods in history---including during the Yuan Dynasty (1271 – 1368). (Of course, by the same standard, one could assert that Vietnam and Korea are also parts of China. China dominated both of these countries in the past too.)
Since this recent round of protests over Chinese occupation of Tibet broke out, there has been a spate of rebuttals on the Internet. Many Chinese nationalists (mostly of the university age) have documented the Middle Kingdom’s long historical ties to Tibet. Foreign apologists for China have also attempted to whitewash China’s activities in Tibet.
I for one am not particularly interested in refuting China’s historical claim to Tibet. Moreover, it is worth noting that Tibet wasn’t exactly a liberal democracy before the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army marched in. Tibet was indeed a feudal country, with a rigid caste system similar to the one that exists in India. There were rampant human rights abuses in Tibet long before the communists appeared.
But two wrongs don’t make a right---and two forms of bad government don’t make a good one. In 1949, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) used the most brutal methods imaginable to assert its rule over all of China---including Tibet. As a result, there are millions of people in that part of the world who would like to see an end to one-party Communist rule; and not all of them are in Tibet. Many of them live in other areas of China. The CCP has never won many popularity contests.
In fact, the CCP has made a lot of enemies throughout the Middle Kingdom during its six decades in power. This is a party with a long criminal rap sheet: the terror of the Cultural Revolution, the enforced famine of the Great Leap Forward, the brutal suppression of pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square, etc. etc. No other organization or entity has brought so much misery to Asia.
And we need to remember that there is no such thing as an opposition party in China. Communist China is still a dictatorship---even if you can find McDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurants in Beijing.
So I am well aware of the history involved here---including Tibet’s somewhat checkered, feudal past. But you don’t have to swear allegiance to the Dalai Lama to object to communist rule. Communism has been bad for Tibet---just like it’s been bad for China.
April 26, 2008
Obama and the "youth vote"
Category: U.S. Politics
Barack Obama’s advocates in the media have constantly pushed his “youth appeal”. They aren’t completely full of hot air on this point. It is no secret that Obama has a lot of supporters on campus, and among younger voters in general.
This makes sense in many regards: At 48, Obama is the youngest candidate in the race. He makes vague promises of “change” and “out with the old, in with the new”---messages that are calculated to appeal to younger voters.
But CBS News recently found that Obama’s hold on younger voters is by no means universal. Moreover, his appeal seems to be strongest among the youngest voters (under 25).
Only the white non-college graduates younger than 25 have favored Obama so far this primary season. They voted for him 59 percent to 38 percent. This is the group that would include most of those pro-Obama undergraduate students.
We don’t know exactly how large that group has been in the primaries this year - there is no exit poll question that measures students -- but the data suggest that any “problem” Obama has with older, working class white voters could start with voters a lot younger than we thought. ---CBS News
What this further suggests is that Obama has a strong appeal in certain demographic corners. However, he has yet to emerge as a candidate with broad national appeal. This will have serious implications for the Democratic Party should he become their nominee.
April 22, 2008
Tough euro times in Italy
Category:
EuropeOne of my friends is married to a native of Florence, Italy. He recently returned to the U.S. from a visit to the old country, and he reports that working-class Italians aren’t faring too well these days in the global economy. Many, it seems, blame the European Union in general----and the adoption of the Euro in particular. The bottom line is that the euro, the new juggernaut of international currencies, has priced Italian manufacturers out of many markets.
(Here is a Forbes article in which Italy’s prime minister discusses the impact of the strong euro on the Italian economy.)
This is more than just abstract griping about “tough times.” The advocates of European economic integration ignored the fact that Europe’s economies are very different. There is a stark north-south divide: northern European countries like Germany and France have a long history of advanced industrialization, while southern European countries like Italy, Portugal, and Greece still rely on light manufacturing, niche agriculture, and tourism.
It is therefore difficult for Italian companies to compete on the world stage when the strength of their current national currency---the euro---is pegged to the economies of France and Germany. Given its level of development, Italy should have a currency that trades at a much lower level than French or German money; and this is exactly what the old Italian lira used to do.
Can Italy become a Germany overnight? Probably not. But this is something that the bureaucrats of the European Union never took into consideration.
April 21, 2008
The technical definition of a recession may not matter
Category: The Middle East
Economists and government officials are spending a lot of time these days trying to determine if the U.S. is technically in a recession or not:
The odds the country will fall into its first recession since 2001 are rising sharply.
Thirty percent of economists now believe the economy will shrink in the first half of this year, up from 10% who thought this in January, according to a survey being released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, known by its acronym NABE.
Don’t get me wrong---I am not suggesting that these technical definitions of a recession don’t matter. They do.
But now let’s consider another item that was in the news today: moms making their own detergent:
As American families face the double whammy of higher gas and food prices, moms nationwide are resorting to considerable ingenuity to stretch their monthly grocery budget.
For instance, Christina Pond of Arlington, Texas, makes her own detergent.
I don’t think that even my grandmother, who was born in 1922, ever made her own laundry detergent. My great-grandmother, who was born in the 1890s, did make her own soap. But my grandmother used the ready-made stuff that came in boxes. She was a twentieth-century homemaker, after all.
The point here is that when twenty-first century Americans are resorting to the household thrift techniques of my great grandmother’s time, we are in an economic crisis---whether or not it technically qualifies as a “recession”.
Make the infidels pay at the pumps
Category: The Middle East, Economy
You don’t need me to tell you that oil prices are through the stratosphere. But you might be interested to know who is cheering them on---Hugo Chavez, for one, of course. Chavez has gone on record as saying that he wants to see oil reach the $200 mark.
Chavez is not alone. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated Saturday that crude oil prices at $115 a barrel are actually on the low side, and that oil must "discover its real value."
"The oil price of $115 a barrel in today's global markets is a deceiving figure. Oil is a strategic commodity that needs to discover its real value." The Iranian prez said.
In business there is generally an assumption that your suppliers want to see you prosper in the long run (for their own self-interest, if nothing else.) For example, the Japanese may want to sell more Toyotas and Hondas in the U.S., but no one in the boardroom of a Japanese automaker wants to see the U.S. economy crumble.
In the case of oil, however, many of our suppliers do want to see us go down for the count. Or at least they say they do. Hugo Chavez owes his economy to the U.S.; but he can’t shut up about Yankee imperialism. Mahmoud Amadinejad’s presidential mansion was built with oil revenues from consumers in the West, but he won’t stop railing at the Great Satan and funding anti-Western terrorism.
This is why our addiction to oil is so dangerous. It is one thing to be dependent on an ally. It is quite another thing to be dependent on enemies and marginal enemies.
April 20, 2008
Don't expect al-Sadr to give up easily
Category: The Middle East
Muqtada al-Sadr is now threatening all-out war if Baghdad and U.S. authorities take any further steps to dismantle his Mehdi Army.
Once again, history repeats itself in Iraq.
Both the Ottomans and the British struggled with regional power brokers in Iraq. In case you don’t know the history here: the Ottomans absorbed Iraq into their once mighty Empire hundreds of years ago. And the British administered Iraq between the two World Wars. (The Ottoman Empire was dissolved following its defeat in WWI.)
Ottoman and British administrators tried in vain to undermine tribal and religious authorities in favor of the central government. Both ultimately found it easier to work through the local chieftains who have historically commanded most of the political loyalty in this troubled land.
This is of course not an option in the twenty-first century, when the henchmen of local political factions carry mortars and AK-47s. But there are no easy options for the U.S. and its allies here. Al-Sadr is clearly committed to retaining his power (and his army), and his identity as a Shiite cleric gives him a messianic sense of mission.
I fear that Muqtada may, in the end, choose to make a dramatic last stand. The U.S. will ultimately win the resultant battle---but the costs are likely to be enormous.
(For more about the history of the Middle East, check out my book on the subject here.)
April 14, 2008
Taxing the Internet
Category: The Internet
Not surprisingly, state governments are now trying to reclaim some of the sales tax revenues that they lose from internet sales.
When you buy an item via such as a book via the internet, you typically don’t pay sales tax. (The textbook example here is an Amazon.com purchase.)
When online sales first took off in the late 1990s, the national economy was booming, and state governments could make up the shortfalls from other revenues. Now the economy is the pits, so legislatures are looking to plug every hole in the state coffers. The famously overtaxed state of New York seems to be leading the charge here:
With the passage of the hotly debated state budget last night, New York legislators approved a bill that will require many online retailers to begin collecting sales taxes on purchases shipped to the state, even if they have no operations or employees working there.
New York Governor David Paterson is widely expected to sign the measure.
The so-called "Amazon tax" closes a loophole for Internet retailers who derive sales through affiliate programs in which Web site owners place a link to the merchant on their site and earn a commission on sales made from referrals.
The next two obvious questions are: 1.) will other state governments follow New York’s lead, and 2.) will this hurt online sales of items like books?
To the first question I would say, yes, definitely. The New York tax is simply the first olive disgorged from the bottle. We can expect many more states to implement “Amazon tax” bills of their own.
As for the second question: Maybe, but probably not. Since I buy a lot of books online, I’ll use myself as an example. I shop at Amazon.com for selection and convenience---not to avoid sales taxes. In my home state of Ohio, taxpayers are expected to list their online purchases on their returns each year, and to pay a retroactive “usage tax.” So I am already sales tax when I buy books on Amazon.com.
April 14, 2008
Obesity and discrimination
We all know that obesity is a growing epidemic in the United States (especially in the middle section of the country, where I live). In theory, more obese people should mean an increased acceptance of obesity. But apparently the overweight among us are feeling more scorn instead:
a new study from Yale University suggests…rather than feeling tolerance in our society, the overweight and obese say they feel more heavily discriminated against now than they did a decade ago.
The study notes, importantly, that this is based on perception. Suppose that a morbidly obese person is turned down for a job. Was he turned down because of resume-based qualifications, or because of his weight? This might be difficult to prove one way or the other.
I have some interest in this topic because I am a former obese person myself. My weight ballooned during my early teenage years. At 5’10”, I weighed around 240 lbs. Then one day I looked at an image of myself and said, enough. I radically changed my diet and began to exercise regularly. I have kept my weight off since 1984---twenty-four years.
I can tell you from experience that in the bizarre microcosm of teenage society, the obese do face discrimination--- tons of it (no pun intended). Ironically, peer disapproval was one of the factors that motivated me to lose weight. (To further add to the irony, some of the folks who once teased me about my weight are now flabby 40-year-olds, while I can still run a 5-minute mile---thanks in part to their long-ago teasing.)
What am I getting at here? I don’t want to see overt discrimination against obese people. If a help-wanted ad ever states “Obese need not apply,” I will gladly help man the barricades. Nor am I in favor of insensitive remarks about people’s weight.
At the same time, perhaps it isn’t necessarily a bad thing if obese people don’t feel completely normal. After all, they aren’t. I was overweight partly because I have a genetic predisposition toward weight gain. But my love of Snickers bars and my lack of exercise were also contributing factors. If I had continued my unhealthy lifestyle, I would probably have sky-high blood pressure and through-the-roof cholesterol today. Instead, I have a resting pulse of 60 and my cholesterol was last measured at 140. I like life better as a fit person. I wasn’t “normal” back then.
There have recently been movements to classify the overweight as a new protected class. As another Time article begins:
Got a weight problem? You can enroll in Weight Watchers, share your pain on Oprah, or now, thanks to the ever expanding rights of victims, phone Uncle Sam. You won't lose those extra pounds overnight, or get back your self- esteem. But you could get a wad of cash or that job you've been wanting.
Since I am a former member of the obese club, I feel somewhat entitled to speak frankly on this issue. Obesity is an unhealthy lifestyle, and it is almost always curable. I bear no grudge against those who gave me unfriendly stares because of my weight. On the contrary, my feelings of social discomfort about my waistline probably saved my life in the long run.
April 08, 2008
Do audiences need another anti-Bush piece?
Even the most diehard Republicans have to admit that the Bush years haven’t exactly been America’s Golden Age. Most of us (conservatives and liberals alike) will be glad to see the Bush Administration come to an end.
Some of the problems that occurred since Bush took office in 2001 were not the administration’s fault. Surely Bush cannot be blamed for 9/11, for example.
However, as Harry S. Truman famously declared, the buck has to stop on the President’s desk. Many of the problems of the last seven years fall squarely on this president’s shoulders: Fundamental mistakes were made in the planning of the Iraq War. (Even the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain acknowledges this.) The deficit has increased to gargantuan proportions. Bush’s ill-considered free trade policies have been disastrous: some states have lost as much as 20% of their manufacturing jobs since 2000. And don’t even get me started about G.W. Bush’s failure to address our porous southern border with Mexico.
Hollywood and the other purveyors of media have, predictably, had a very long field day. Anti-Bush media has become a flourishing cottage industry. We now have an array of titles like Bushwacked, Bushisms, Shrub etc., etc. Michael Moore has made at least two films that take aim at George W. Bush. We have books that seriously pick apart the president’s foreign policy, books that belittle his economic ideas, and still more books that document his poor grasp of global events. And then there are the many titles that simply make fun of him. The anti-Bush theme has been done every which way, and then some.
And now it seems that filmmaker Oliver Stone plans to get in on the act. According to the Cafferty File:
Coming to a theater perhaps even before he leaves office: “W”, Oliver Stone’s upcoming movie about President Bush.
A draft of the script describes our president as, quote “a foul-mouthed, reformed drunk who is obsessed with baseball.”
“The Hollywood Reporter” sent a draft of the screenplay to four biographers of the president to see how accurate they thought it was. Reactions were mixed; they say specific scenes are largely based in fact, but the screenplay shows inaccurate and over-the-top caricatures of President Bush and his inner circle.
Pretty much the same sort of knee-jerk, warmed-over 1960s-esque tripe that we’ve come to expect out of Oliver Stone. I, for one, doubt that I will bother with this movie--even when the DVD version appears. (And we can expect this film to go almost straight to DVD.)
I am not defending the Bush record. I have criticized many of his policies in this column. But there is a fine line at which the media is simply beating a dead horse, and Oliver Stone’s movie project is way over that line. We can all agree that George W. Bush was not among our most successful commanders-in-chief. And as our president, he will become a historical footnote within a matter of months. After seven years of hearing endlessly about his mistakes, his flaws, etc., I cannot imagine how two more hours of Bush bashing from Oliver Stone could possibly be entertaining.
As someone once said, “Enough already.”
April 06, 2008
Does NATO need to expand into Eastern Europe?
NATO started out as a treaty organization whose purpose was to counter the Soviet threat during the Cold War. The original member states were limited to the U.S., Canada, and our Western European allies: France, the UK, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Luxemburg, Denmark and Iceland. In 1952 NATO expanded eastward with the inclusion of Greece and Turkey. Then the rehabilitated West Germany was added in 1955. Spain was added in 1982, seven years after the death of General Franco.
NATO made perfect sense in the context of the Communist threat. The member states of NATO were bound to come to each other’s defense in the event of a Soviet attack. This committed the U.S. to go to war if, for example, the USSR started lobbing missiles into Oslo. But NATO also put the Marxist expansionists in Moscow on notice: if they invaded Western Europe, the full weight of the Free World would come down upon the Red Army.
That was then. Today the Soviet Union is no more, and Russia is a decaying state with a shrinking population and a stockpile of aging nukes. The main threat to world peace is no longer Communism, but Islamist-inspired terrorism.
But George W. Bush apparently never got that memo. The Bush Administration seems intent on expanding NATO all the way to the borders of Russia. Bush now supports NATO membership for Albania, Croatia, and Georgia, just to name a few.
Whoa, Nellie. The original goal of NATO was to counter a very specific threat: the Soviet Union. The goal was not to commit the U.S. (not to mention the rest of our NATO allies) to the destinies of every state on the European continent. If Albania and Serbia have a border war in the future, would this have a profound impact on the interests of the United States? I don’t think so.
Moreover, NATO’s eastward expansion into the old Soviet Bloc is an unnecessary provocation of Russia. These days the Russians are suffering from a major inferiority complex, and the last thing we want to do is prod them by forming military alliances with former member states of the U.S.S.R. After all, how many Americans could even find Georgia (the country, not the state) on a map? (Georgia has a population of less than 5 million people, and a GDP under 20 million.)
I don’t like the Putin government myself. But right now the United States has bigger fish to fry. Our troops are mired in two land conflicts in the Middle East. The last thing we need is a commitment to intervene on the eastern and southern fringes of Europe.
April 06, 2008
Books, consumer choice, and monopsony
Amazon.com has been generally regarded as one of the good guys in the retail world. Since the company’s launch in 1995, Amazon has provided a previously unprecedented level of choice to consumers. Its lower operating costs enable Amazon to offer a wide range of discounts, on everything from the latest John Grisham hardcover to express shipping.
Moreover, Amazon has been remarkably accessible to small presses and even self-publishers. This is one method by which Amazon has built such a vast catalog.
I have been studying and writing about foreign languages for about 20 years, so I’ll use that world as an example. In the old days, language students were very limited by the offerings available in mall bookstores like Waldenbooks. Once the superstores like Borders and Barnes & Noble came along, the selection improved considerably. But there were still limitations. If you wanted to find a textbook for intermediate Spanish, you could probably find one in Borders or B&N. But just try finding an advanced text for Korean, Portuguese or Thai at the mall. Bricks and mortar booksellers simply couldn’t afford to allocate shelf space for such arcane items. As a result, most bookstores stocked the complete Chicken Soup series, but no more than a handful of Mandarin Chinese texts.
Of course, it was possible even then to locate specialized publishers and order their books by mail. In theory, at least. I occasionally did this myself as I was studying Japanese and Mandarin Chinese during the 1990s. But before the full development of the internet (say in 1993 or 1994), this was often easier said than done. Moreover, specialized publishers had few profitable outlets, so their catalogs were limited.
Amazon changed all that. Amazon’s web-based store enables them to virtually “stock” titles that will sell in quantities far below what a bricks and mortar store would deem acceptable. This is where the small publishers (and academic presses) come in. Large publishing companies like Random House generally don’t bother with arcane subject matter like advanced biochemistry and intermediate Vietnamese conversation. Big publishers need big hits to pay for their overhead.
There is another side to the small press and “micropublishing” world: all the “creative” works that have been rejected by big publishing houses. Many of these novels, short story collections, and poetry anthologies should have stayed in their authors’ desk drawers (or hard drives). But there are a few diamonds among the chafe of manuscripts rejected by big publishers, and micropublishing gives these works a fighting chance in marketplace. And more to the point of our topic here: Amazon gives them a retail sales outlet.
This is about more than just diversity for readers; there is real money involved here. This so-called “long tail” of publishing now accounts for more annual book sales than the bestsellers. This doesn’t mean that any one particular Thai language textbook or self-published novel has sales figures anywhere near those of the latest John Grisham novel. But when you add up the aggregates, those obscure titles now outsell the bestsellers.
Amazon.com recently decided that they want a larger piece of the profits from this expanding pie. Last week the company informed print-on-demand (POD) publishers that it will only list titles printed by Booksurge, Amazon’s own POD printer. POD is a printing method used to manufacture a growing number of academic titles (as well as self-published novels that sell ten copies per year). At present the dominant player in this field is Lightening Source. Amazon’s move has been widely decried as anti-competitive, and perhaps even in violation of antitrust laws.
Amazon has also threatened UK publishers who sell their titles at a discount directly through their websites. As might be expected, this shot across the bow has also brought cries of unfairness from the publishing world.
I recently wrote about the economic condition known as monopsony----a market that is dominated by a single, dominant buyer. Like a monopoly, a monopsony ultimately results in reduced choice for consumers, and a smaller pie for everyone to split. (The only benefit is the increase in profits for the dominant monopsony buyer.) The online retail book trade is not quite a monopsony----yet. But Amazon’s recent policy shifts lead one to speculate that the book market may be headed in that direction.
March 30, 2008
"Global English" is just bad English
English, the language of Shakespeare and Charles Dickens, is evolving into a new, simplified form called "Panglish", spoken by billions of people around the world.
The changes are not being driven by Britons, Americans or Australians, but the growing number of people who speak English as a second language, New Scientist reported on Thursday.
According to linguists, Panglish will be similar to the versions of English used by non-native speakers. As the new language takes over, "the" will become "ze", "friend" will be "frien" and the phrase "he talks" will become "he talk".
Most interactions in English now take place between non-English speakers, according to Dr Jurgen Beneke of the University of Hildesheim, Germany.
Yes, and most of them don’t understand each other. One of the weaknesses in the insistence on English in as a global lingua franca is demonstrated above: typically all the rules go out the window; and with the rules, understanding.
Now for the big disclaimer: native-English-speakers are the worst linguists in the world. So the point here isn’t to make fun of non-native-English-speakers who sometimes make mistakes when speaking.
The point, rather, is that a third-party language (what English is in most of the world) is of limited value as a communications tool. It makes sense, perhaps, to universally rely on English as a lingua franca for airport procedures and the like. For more complex communications, however, it is best to rely on the native language of one of the parties involved. In many cases, this will mean something other than English.
Learn English or go to jail?
This is the headline that is all over the internet after Judge Peter Paul Olszewski Jr made this a condition of parole for four Spanish-speaking immigrants. If you read the entire story here, you will see that the men were in court not because they couldn’t speak English, but because they committed a robbery. (Learning English was part of a reduced sentence.)
Free speech, Europe and Islam
Since I wrote a book about the Middle East (which includes a chapter about Islam in Europe) I have been following the Geert Wilders controversy with some interest.
In case you aren’t familiar with European politics, Wilders is a conservative (some would say right-wing) Dutch politician who produced a short anti-Islamic video called Fitna. The movie decries the message of the Koran as an incitement to violence.
Wilders (who lives in hiding because of death threats) has repeatedly told interviewers that his beef is with Islamic ideology, not Muslims themselves. Nevertheless, his critics have branded him a racist, fascist, Nazi, etc. etc.
And his video isn’t exactly getting rave reviews. Fitna has had a hard time even finding a home on the internet. First Wilders’ U.S. hosting service suspended his website. The video was then posted on LiveLeak.com. LiveLeak removed the video after its staff received death threats.
Emotions run high on this issue, to say the least. I found out myself when I posted a YouTube video supporting the Dutch politician’s right to free speech. Within an hour I had attracted a (non-Muslim) individual from the UK who railed at me about everything from Wilders to U.S. policy in Iraq. Or well, he didn’t just rail at me, he shouted profanity at me, called me a fascist, and threatened to bludgeon me with an iron bar if I ever took my Yankee (expletive) to Europe. The fellow was hysterical by any standards.
I later found out my harasser’s real identity. He wasn’t a testosterone-charged college kid (as I had at first assumed), but an adult with a relatively responsible position and an internet presence.
He eventually backed off, but I decided that this wasn’t a controversy that I wanted to jump into in a public way. I don’t understand the Dutch language, so I have no way of knowing if Geert Wilders is indeed preaching racially intolerant messages in his own language. And I didn’t want to cope with any more cranks in my email in-box. So I removed my YouTube video that supported Wilders right free speech.
But the incident left me dismayed about the situation in Europe. Setting aside the motives of one Dutch politician (I am not really all that interested in Wilders himself), the recent flap does highlight the current European struggle over the meaning of free speech and multiculturalism. A few years ago, another prominent Dutchman, Theo Van Gogh, was murdered by a Muslim extremist in Amsterdam. Like Wilders, he had produced a movie that was critical of Islam.
Key points:
Both sides in this European debate seem to be more concerned with hurling ideological bromides than with a serious analysis of the issue. On one side is the European left, which is paranoid about a resurrection of the long-dead Nazi regime. They should concern themselves more with contemporary matters. When Muslim radicals are telling Danish newspapers that they can’t print certain cartoons, and filmmakers are being murdered in the streets of Amsterdam, then Europe has a free speech problem, plain and simple. And the culprits here aren’t Nazis or old-line European fascists.
On the other hand, conservative European critics of Islam are making themselves easy targets for charges of bigotry and sensationalism. The late Theo Van Gogh frequently attacked Islam and profane and scatological terms. This was neither necessary nor productive. Wilders has also resorted to cliché and name-calling from time-to-time. (In one interview I saw online, he referred to Islamic culture as “retarded.”)
Most of Europe’s Muslims are law-abiding citizens who only want a better life for their families. But a few radicals in their midst are stoking fears that European Muslims want to Islamicize the Continent. Since the Salmon Rushdie affair of 1989, Europe has been buffeted by occasional bouts of Islamist violence. The situation has become more acute over the past two decades, as immigration from the Middle East has increased, and 9/11 and the Iraq War have heightened tensions between the Muslim world and the West.
I want to see Europe remain a bastion of free speech and liberal Western democratic ideals. I also want to see Europe remain tolerant and welcoming toward outsiders. (And I don’t want any Europeans to be waiting for me at the airport with iron bars because they disagree with my views.)
March 27, 2008
Political and economic divisions of ancient Greece...
Ancient Greece was not one land, but many.
The political entity that the world knows today as “Greece” dates back only to 1829. The Greeks always shared various linguistic and cultural elements; but politics was another matter. The ancient Greeks did not view themselves as a single nation. Political loyalties were much more locally defined.
The most significant political entity in ancient Greece was the city-state. A city state was basically a city that acquired many of the political functions now reserved for national governments. There were many city-states in ancient Greece; but the most significant ones were Athens, Sparta, and Thebes. An ancient Greek was loyal to his city-state as many modern people are loyal to their national governments. City-states typically had competing goals and interests. Therefore, city-states often went to war with each other. This political divisiveness eventually became a major liability for the Greeks, making them vulnerable to enemy forces from abroad that were more united.
There are a few regional divisions in ancient Greece that are worth mentioning:
The Peloponnesus and Attica: These two areas were controlled by Sparta and Athens, respectively. The Peloponnesus is an island that lies south of the Gulf of Corinth. It is connected to the mainland by a narrow land bridge. The Peloponnesus was the site of not only Sparta, but also Olympia, where the Olympic games were held. Attica refers to a peninsula located northeast of the Peloponnesus. Athens was the political and economic force here.
Other notable Greek regions include:
Boeotia (northwest of Attica) The major city-state of Thebes was located here.
Thessaly (north of Boeotia) The breadbasket of ancient Greece. Thessaly was known for its abundant wheat fields and fine horses.
Macedonia (to the far north of the Greek peninsula) Macedon was of minimal significance in Greek history until the Macedonian king Phillip II conquered the rest of Greece in 338 B.C. Alexander the Great (Phillip’s son) also hailed from Macedon.
March 25, 2008
For those of you studying Thai…
Thai is a relatively difficult language for a native English-speaker to learn. There is a growing body of study materials for this language (as recently as ten years ago there were almost none).
If you are thinking about studying Thai and would like to get a taste of the language for free, allow me to recommend the LearningThai.com website. This site contains extensive tutorials for various aspects of the language, including the Thai writing system.
The materials on this website aren’t enough to make you fluent in Thai, but they are enough to get you started. After you are done with these, I recommend buying the Thai for Beginners textbook and CD course by Benjawan Poomsan Becker . These materials are relatively inexpensive and well worth the money. (The same author has published an intermediate and advanced course to take you to higher levels of proficiency.)
If you are studying Thai, then you are part of a small, elite group Thai is one of the less commonly taught Asian languages. Most people who are interested in Asian languages study either Japanese or Chinese. Even Korean and Vietnamese probably have more students in the English-speaking world than Thai does. So if you are learning Thai, then you likely have a very specific personal or professional reason for doing so.
March 22, 2008
Become a lawyer without law school?
I am a big proponent of self-education. The autodidact has a long tradition in America that dates all the way back to the Founding Fathers, no less. For generations, self-education was an acceptable means of acquiring new professional skills.
Today, however, there is a perception that the only knowledge worth counting is knowledge acquired in a formal educational environment. But time and financial constraints make continuing education difficult for many Americans.
With the educational materials now available online and through Amazon.com, we need to revive the tradition of the autodidact. Your next question is obvious: how can an employer verify that a "self-educated" person has really acquired the knowledge that he or she lays claim to? (Most people do pursue education in order to earn a living, after all.)
The answer is certification exams. These are already in wide use in the information technology sector. If you want to become an MCSE (Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer), for example, you don't have to spend $40,000 going back to school. You do have to pass a certification exam that is administered by Microsoft. (There are also numerous vendor-neutral exams in the IT field.)
Of course, if you want to go back to school to study for the MCSE, you can (and many people do), but formal schooling isn't a requirement. This arrangement enables MCSE hopefuls to avail themselves of formal education if they desire it, without giving the university system a monopoly as the imparter of knowledge.
Here an online columnist asks if the same system would work for law school. The author notes that Abraham Lincoln never went to law school---but he passed the bar exam. (Today most states require a formal law degree before you can take the bar exam.)
Needless to say, self-education has its limits. I wouldn't want a self-taught surgeon to operate on me. But for many fields, verified self-education (via a certification exam system) could offer an affordable alternative to the university.
March 21, 2008
My video on the crisis in Tibet
Here I weigh in on the China-Tibet crisis.
March 19, 2008
What divorce parties and weddings have in common
Well, now I’ve seen just about everything. The soaring divorce rate in the U.S. has spawned a new cottage industry: the divorce party planner:
Charlotte Eulette of Montclair, New Jersey, ceremoniously reclaimed her maiden name and slipped a ring from her mother on her newly bare wedding ring finger.
Cathryn Michon hit the Los Angeles restaurant Mr. Chow with some friends who'd brought divorce gifts.
In Las Vegas, reality-show regular Shanna Moakler served a three-tiered gateau -- complete with knife-wielding-bride cake topper (and matching dead groom) -- to attendees after her (first) split from Travis Barker.
If just discussing divorce in public seemed taboo a few years ago, the growing trend of divorce celebrations is helping lessen the stigma surrounding the end of marriage. ---CNN.com (complete article here)
Now, before you send me an angry email, understand this: I don’t want anyone to be stigmatized for getting divorced. Nevertheless, I think that there is room to question whether or not the “divorce party” is a great idea. Personally, I think it stinks. Divorce typically means emotional distress, financial hardship, and the disruption of the lives of any children involved. We don’t need to stigmatize divorce, but we ought not celebrate it either.
There have also been a number of articles lately about the unworldly cost and preparations that people are now sinking into weddings. The average wedding now consumes an entire year of intensive planning and $20,000 ~ $30,000.
It is ironic that as weddings are taking on the scope public gala events, entrepreneurs are making small fortunes holding parties for the newly divorced.
It might indicate that we have made marriage too much of a public thing---when it should be more of a private thing. I know several soon-to-be-married people who are agonizing over every detail of their upcoming weddings. I mean---come on---how much attention needs to be put into the selection of a DJ and a wedding dress? When you’re about to take the momentous step of marriage, shouldn’t you have other things on your mind?
A wedding is a one-shot public performance. Perhaps we should be agonizing more over people’s preparations for marriage---which will (given current life spans) continue for forty to fifty years or more. Such a change in priorities might just put the divorce planners out of business, which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for society as a whole.
March 17, 2008
Another reason to just learn the language…
I’m often asked for my opinion about translation software. Although I am a strong advocate of foreign language studies, I don’t harbor a quasi-religious bias against software that translates, or---as detailed below----attempts to translate:
Translation software still fails - badly
New translation software is designed to make the world your customer, but it's still a long way from being fluent.
(click here to read the article on CNN.com)
The above describes laughable, incomprehensible results from software packages (some of which are quite pricey) when entrusted with complex translation tasks.
This doesn’t mean that translation software is completely useless (although I suspect that the actual ROI on many of the more expensive packages severely disappoints buyers). It is important, however, to understand what translation software is useful for and what it is not useful for.
Translation software is useful for translating repetitive words and phrases (the kind of content that is often found on blueprints). Translation software is also useful for figuring out the general topic of a foreign-language website or document.
What translation software is not useful for is the sort of tasks which are best left to human translators---like formal business correspondence, user manuals, etc. Translation of this complexity requires a human being who can “read between the lines” and distinguish subtleties.
The android C3P0 claimed to be “fluent in over six million forms of communication.” Machine translation was feasible for Star Wars; but it is going to be a while before software packages here on earth can replace human translators.
March 16, 2008
My words exactly…
I have often stated that we Americans need to expand our study of foreign languages beyond the “big three”---French, Spanish, and German. While these Western European languages still have their place, world events demand that we assign a higher degree of priority to non-European tongues like Arabic, Japanese, and Chinese.
A lawmaker in Florida apparently agrees:
Rep. Maria Sachs, D-Delray Beach, thinks the state should look beyond the old standards — Spanish, French, German and Latin — which have been de rigueur in most school districts for decades.
"Our children are competing with children in other countries," said Sachs, who along with Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, has introduced legislation designed to make it easier for schools to offer languages not commonly taught in the classroom. "We have to keep our Florida schools competitive in the global economy."
To Sachs, that means teaching Japanese, Chinese, Arabic, Hindi and the like. Her bill would allow teachers to earn a temporary three-year certification in those languages and several others by passing a test issued by the American Council on the Teaching of Foreign Languages.
---Tampabay.com
Read the complete article here.
My video about Mehdi Kazemi
I was gratified to see that this video was picked up by several dissident Iranian sites on the internet. There is an important update to his issue: It looks like the UK government may now give Kazemi asylum.
It’s about time. What took them so long? I won’t retract my rebukes of the governments of the UK and the Netherlands. Both governments have been far too timid when confronted by Islamic extremism within their own borders.
March 12, 2008
There's a disconnect here somewhere...
Late last week, Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin said in a speech that the dollar's decline only poses a limited inflation threat to the United States, arguing that there is little correlation between consumer inflation and changes in the exchange rate.
I beg to differ. The weak dollar is closely related to the surging price of oil. While Wall Street may be able to weather the crisis (for a while at least) the impact on consumers and working people is severe.
Another sign of an administration that is hopelessly out of touch...
I knew that this was coming....
The media just couldn't resist. In the wake of the Elliot Spitzer scandal, MSNBC has discovered the news potential of the world's oldest profession. Apparently there will even be a reality TV show about working ladies in Nevada (creatively titled "Cathouse").
Sigh...
March 10, 2008
Do interest rate cuts = higher oil?
From Mark in Topeka, Kansas:
“Dear Ed:
I have heard that interest rate cuts can lead to higher inflation. Is this true?”
Yes: interest rate cuts increase the money supply, which leads to inflation.
Right now the interest rate cut / inflation connection is extremely dangerous because of high oil prices. Inflation weakens the dollar, and a weak dollar means less purchasing power for everyone who has to buy things with dollars. (That means most of us living in the U.S. of A.)
When the dollar is weak it takes more dollars to purchase a barrel of oil in the global marketplace. This is why the price of oil is going sky-high as the dollar plummets against international currencies.
So all these rate cuts may or may not help the lagging housing market. That remains to be seen. But one thing is for certain: Each time Bernanke cuts the interest rate, he weakens the dollar. And each time the dollar falls, the price we have to pay for oil inches up.
Far from being a panacea, the interest rate cut often turns out to be the proverbial medicine that is worse than the disease it is intended to cure.
My take on the Elliot Spitzer scandal
From my inbox this afternoon:
“Ed, what do you think of the Elliot Spitzer scandal? Should the governor resign?”
This is a complicated one.
As most of you know, I am generally opposed to attempts to legislate private morality. The oldest profession isn’t likely to bring about the downfall of civilization. I would prefer that our police focus on crimes with actual victims, rather than going after gambling, call girls (and, in the case of Ohio, strippers). I also think that our marijuana laws need to be revisited. (I eschew all intoxicating substances myself; but in my opinion, alcohol---a narcotic with corporate sponsorship--- is a far more pernicious drug.)
Elliot Spitzer is obviously guilty of marital infidelity. But this issue concerns the governor and his wife----not the governor and everyone else. One of the most acclaimed U.S. presidents, JFK, was also one of the Oval Office’s most prolific philanderers. (By contrast, Jimmy Carter, who only “lusted in his heart” was an abysmal failure as President.) This doesn’t mean that infidelity is OK---it simply means that, within reasonable limits, we cannot judge the leader by his or her sex life.
On a wider level, the exaggerated “shock” about the Elliot Spitzer case illuminates the American public’s paradoxical attitudes about sex. (One female CNN correspondent claimed to be “nauseated” by the PG-rated details in the police report.)
On one hand, suggestions of sex and titillation are everywhere, in our movies, our reality TV shows, and even in our hamburger commercials. (See the video below.) However, our attitudes become oddly prudish when certain arbitrary lines are crossed. Sex for money seems to be one of those lines.
