June 13, 2007
The latest tactic in Iraq: arming Sunni militia groups
I heard on the news yesterday that the American military has begun arming Sunni militia groups in Iraq. The U.S. command is selectively providing arms to groups that are also fighting al-Qaeda.
The idea, of course, is to turn up the heat on al-Qaeda. Homegrown militia groups can maneuver more easily in Iraq, and their position will presumably give them a greater access to intelligence.
I can see the thought process involved here. I also realize that Iraq is an incredibly frustrating situation from a military perspective. The American high command is understandably in an experimental mood. Nevertheless, there are a handful of reasons why arming Sunni militias may not be a winning strategy.
It will undermine the Iraqi government. The Iraqi government is far from perfect. But it’s a lot better than what the Iraqis had five years ago; and more to the point----it’s the only government they have. If the Iraqi government does not become stable, the Americans will never be able to leave the country.
The sense of nationhood is very tenuous in Iraq. Iraq has been a single country for less than 100 years. The nation was patched together after WWI from three Ottoman provinces (The Ottoman Empire itself was dissolved in 1921 with the Treaty of Sevres. The Ottomans made the fatal mistake of taking the losing side in WWI.)
The three main groups in Iraq: Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds, have never gotten along. The British administered Iraq for decades, and they had nothing but trouble from Iraq’s internal conflicts. Even Saddam Hussein struggled to keep Iraq together.
And now there are numerous militia groups competing with the fledgling government in Baghdad. The central government is Shiite-dominated, so most of the Sunnis are opposed to it. The Sunni groups receiving arms from the American military will almost certainly turn their weapons on the central government at some point---if they aren’t already.
Loyalties change quickly in the Middle East. Remember those heroic Afghan mujahideen that the U.S. armed during the 1980s? American arms enabled Afghanistan’s holy warriors to turn the tide against the invading Soviets. Moscow finally pulled out in 1989. But that didn’t stop the Taliban from harboring Osama bin Laden---the world’s most dedicated enemy of the United States.
A Sunni group that is fighting al-Qaeda today will very likely be fighting U.S. forces tomorrow. Some of the militia groups have now turned against al-Qaeda; but all of the militia groups are fundamentally against the U.S. occupation.
Al-Qaeda can easily infiltrate the militia groups. Al-Qaeda has proven on numerous occasions that it can infiltrate the Iraqi government, which has at least a semblance of structure. Infiltrating a militia group should be a breeze by comparison. This almost inevitable scenario will put American arms directly in the hands of al-Qaeda fighters.
Perhaps I am being overly pessimistic. But history proves that we have to be careful when handing out guns in the Middle East. On balance, arming Sunni militia groups doesn’t seem like a very good idea.